MOSCOW, Jan 9 (PRIME) -- The rate of the Russian economy growth may exceed 2% annually in July–December, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin told business daily Kommersant in an interview published on January 8.
“I expect quite nice results in 2017. The economy is already growing, both gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial output grew in the fourth quarter (of 2016) and GDP will rise by 2% annually in the second half of 2017, maybe even more,” Oreshkin said.
The basic forecast of the ministry envisages economic growth of 0.6% in 2017 if the average oil price amounts to U.S. $40 per barrel, and the moderately optimistic forecasts envisages a 1.1% GDP rise and a $48 oil price.
Oreshkin said that he sees the key goals of his economic policies in an increase of the rate of sustainable economic growth and in an as-soon-as-possible return of economic certainty for business.
“Businessmen say candidly that economic uncertainty is one of the main reasons why companies postpone investments, decide to delay extension of production volumes, going forward. This is why the key shot-term accent for the economic authorities is to return certainty to the expectations of economic agents,” Oreshkin said.
The official said he admits that the Economic Development Ministry’s macroeconomic forecast used to be a merely technical document to base policies on but it must become a tool of communication of the government with business circles and citizens.
The Russian budget will be sustainable without an increase of taxes if the oil price amounts to $40 per barrel, Oreshkin said.
He separately said that companies which avoid illegal business practices bear an incomparably higher tax burden in Russia against companies involved with the shadow economy and that the tax burden on legal business must decrease.
“It seems to me that the Russian government is about to reach a moment – from the point of view of technological development – when it can do a serious step toward an increase of the share of the white economy and a decline of the share of the shadow sector,” Oreshkin also said.
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